30% of warming. The numbers are not small.

Livestock methane contributes roughly 30% of near-term climate forcing, more than all coal power combined in short-lived warming potential. The U.S. herd alone generates $10B in annual social costs.

The market won't close this gap.

Buyers won't pay for a product that doesn't exist. Innovators won't build for a market that isn't there.

A self-sealing deadlock with no private exit.

Enteric methane receives 2% of agricultural climate R&D. The ROI math fails for any single investor; the science is promising, but no coordination structure exists to turn it into a fundable bet.

An AMC creates the missing demand signal.

An Advance Market Commitment is a binding promise to purchase a qualifying product if it works. Sponsors commit upfront, but pay nothing if no product succeeds.

That single forward commitment restarts stalled R&D. The Pneumococcal AMC used the same mechanism and the same economist, Michael Kremer, to deliver vaccines to 1.7 billion children. This is the same design applied to an agricultural market failure.

R&D restarts. The pathway opens.

With demand de-risked, capital moves earlier. The innovation chain restarts: R&D investment, regulatory approval, manufacturer scale-up.

The pathway is technology-agnostic: vaccines, feed additives, boluses, genetics. AMC design rewards performance, not modality.

Farmers adopt. Methane falls.

At 30 to 50 percent adoption across U.S. and high-readiness markets, this model produces one of the strongest benefit-cost ratios in the climate portfolio. The mechanism is farmer-economics-first: adoption happens when the product is net-zero or better at the herd level.

Temperature gains are measurable before 2035.

Because methane clears the atmosphere in roughly 12 years, reduced emissions show up as measurable cooling within a decade, not a generation.

A $750M design target, drawn from governments, corporates, philanthropies, and investors, opens the launch window. The design is live. The coordination is the remaining constraint.

The economics work if farmers adopt.

That's the assumption the model makes, and it's the assumption that hasn't been tested. The AMC pays for the technology to exist; it does not pay for the farmer to use it.

Adoption asks ranchers to absorb the cost of the product, the operational burden of administering it, and the risk that it underperforms in their herd. The AMC builds the market. It does not, on its own, build the uptake.